Flashlight, spare batteries, bottled water, a battery or hand-crank radio and a first-aid kit: spread out side by side, they do not look like much. But when the lights go out in January and the furnace fan goes quiet, that small pile of supplies is what decides whether a household rides out a winter power outage calmly or ends up improvising in the dark.
This is a good week to put that kit together. NOAA released its official winter outlook on Oct. 15, the nation’s grid watchdog is finishing its winter reliability report, and the memory of last January’s deadly ice storm is still fresh across the South. Here is what the forecasts and federal safety data actually say, and what to do before the first storm.
What the 2026-27 outlook means for winter power outage risk
NOAA’s 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook, released Oct. 15, is built around a very strong El Nino. For December through February, the agency favors warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern U.S., including the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. It favors wetter-than-average conditions across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.
A warmer-than-average season does not mean a season without dangerous cold snaps or ice. “A very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” National Weather Service director Ken Graham said in the release. “Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
NOAA also noted a change for this season: forecasters will begin using “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings for high-confidence events of historic severity. If you see that phrase in a warning for your county, treat it as a signal to finish your preparations immediately. NOAA’s next three-month update is due Nov. 19.
Last winter’s warning: Winter Storm Fern
Ice, not snow depth, is what usually breaks the power system. A March 2026 analysis by PowerOutage.us of Winter Storm Fern, the January 2026 storm that spread ice and heavy snow from Texas to Virginia, found that roughly 1.1 million customers were without power at the peak. Tennessee (345,000), Mississippi (189,000), Louisiana (143,000) and Texas (142,000) saw the largest peaks.
Ice accretion topped one inch in parts of northern Mississippi, and the analysis said the hardest-hit areas needed infrastructure rebuilding, with restoration stretching beyond two weeks. Mississippi had restored only 51% of affected customers by day three and needed nearly two weeks to reach 98%. The report attributed 174 deaths to the storm, calling it one of the deadliest U.S. winter storms in modern history.
For households, the lesson is that a multi-day outage is a realistic planning scenario, not a worst case.
What the grid watchdog says, and what is coming Nov. 18
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) publishes an annual Winter Reliability Assessment. Its 2026-2027 schedule sets the release for Nov. 18, 2026, so the newest findings are not out yet.
Last year’s 2025-2026 assessment offers the most recent baseline. NERC found that all assessment areas had adequate resources for normal winter peak demand, but that prolonged, wide-area cold snaps could cause electricity supply shortfalls. It reported that aggregate peak demand had risen by 20 GW (2.5%) from the previous winter while total resources grew by a smaller 9.4 GW. Areas flagged for elevated risk in extreme conditions included New England, parts of the Southeast covered by SERC-East and SERC-Central, and Texas (ERCOT), where NERC pointed to strong load growth from new data centers and other large industrial users.
As the American Public Power Association summarized, NERC also warned that natural gas supply for power plants “remains precarious during extreme winter conditions.” When grid operators are short of supply, they issue public conservation appeals first. Following those requests, such as delaying laundry or turning thermostats down a few degrees, is the easiest way a household can help prevent rolling outages.
Most outages start on your street, not at the power plant
Grid-wide shortfalls get headlines, but most hours without power come from storms damaging local lines. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in December 2025 that U.S. customers averaged 11 hours of electricity interruptions in 2024, nearly twice the average of the previous decade. Major events such as hurricanes accounted for 80% of those hours. Interruptions not tied to major events routinely average about two hours a year. A single major storm can push outage time into days for the people in its path, and that is the scenario to plan for.
Build your winter power outage kit
The federal Ready.gov kit checklist is the standard starting point. A basic kit could include:
| Item | Ready.gov guidance |
|---|---|
| Water | One gallon per person per day for several days, for drinking and sanitation |
| Food | At least a several-day supply of non-perishable food, plus a manual can opener |
| Radio | Battery-powered or hand-crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert |
| Light | Flashlight and extra batteries |
| First aid | A first aid kit, plus prescription and non-prescription medications |
| Power | Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery |
| Tools | Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities; whistle to signal for help |
| Warmth | Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person, and a change of climate-appropriate clothing |
| Records | Copies of important documents saved electronically or in a waterproof container; some cash |
Ready.gov recommends storing the items in airtight plastic bags inside one or two easy-to-carry containers, such as plastic bins or a duffel bag, and re-checking the kit every year. The American Red Cross goes further for long outages, advising households to store non-perishable food and water for at least two weeks, keep a paper copy of key contacts and keep the car’s gas tank at least half full.
Winter additions worth the space: hats and gloves for everyone, a fridge thermometer, battery lanterns instead of open flames, and, as Ready.gov suggests, a flashlight for every household member.
Generators: the 20-foot rule that saves lives
Portable generators are the single biggest carbon monoxide danger in an outage. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission says an average of nearly 100 people die in the U.S. each year from CO poisoning caused by portable generators, and warns that poisoning “can kill in minutes.” Across all non-fire sources, the CDC says more than 400 Americans die from unintentional CO poisoning each year, more than 100,000 visit an emergency department and more than 14,000 are hospitalized.
The CPSC’s rules are specific:
- Never run a portable generator inside a home, garage, basement, crawlspace or shed. Opening doors or windows does not provide enough ventilation.
- Run it outside only, at least 20 feet from the house, with the exhaust pointed away from doors and windows. Do not run it on a porch or in a carport.
- Look for models with a CO shut-off safety feature.
- Install battery-operated or battery-backup CO alarms on every level of the home and outside sleeping areas, and test them monthly.
- Clear snow away from outside vents for furnaces and other fuel-burning appliances.
Ready.gov’s power outage guidance adds three more: keep the generator dry, connect appliances with heavy-duty extension cords, and let the engine cool before refueling, because fuel spilled on hot parts can ignite. The CDC also warns never to run a car or truck inside an attached garage, even with the door open.
Staying warm without starting a fire
When the heat goes out, people reach for whatever will warm a room, and that is where fires start. The National Fire Protection Association’s heating safety data show fire departments responded to an estimated average of 37,365 home fires involving heating equipment each year from 2020 to 2024, causing an estimated 417 civilian deaths a year. Space heaters and heating stoves accounted for 30% of those fires but 73% of the deaths. Nearly half of heating equipment fires (46%) occurred from December through February.
The safest habits, drawn from CPSC and Ready.gov guidance:
- Never use a gas stove or oven to heat your home. Ready.gov warns it raises the risk of CO poisoning and fire.
- Never use charcoal grills or outdoor camp stoves indoors, including in a garage.
- Keep portable heaters at least three feet from beds, curtains, clothing and furniture, plug electric heaters directly into a wall outlet (never a power strip) and do not leave them running unattended.
- Use flashlights or battery candles. If you do burn candles, never leave them unattended.
If the home becomes too cold to stay safely, both Ready.gov and the Red Cross advise going to a warming center or other community location with power. Check with local officials about which sites open in your area.
Food, medicine and water when the power fails
Keep the refrigerator and freezer closed. According to Ready.gov, a refrigerator will keep food cold for about four hours and a full freezer will hold its temperature for about 48 hours. The Red Cross notes a half-full freezer holds for about 24 hours. Throw out perishable food that has been at 40 degrees F or higher for two hours or more. “When in doubt, throw it out.”
For medicine, Ready.gov says that if the power is out for more than a day, refrigerated medication should be discarded unless the label says otherwise, and a doctor or pharmacist should be consulted for a new supply. Anyone who depends on powered medical equipment should talk to their provider now about a backup plan. Both agencies also advise unplugging electronics during an outage to avoid surge damage when power returns.
A 30-minute checklist before December
- Gather the core kit: water, food, flashlights, batteries, radio, first aid, chargers and blankets, in one bin.
- Test smoke and CO alarms, and add battery-backup CO alarms on every level if you do not have them.
- If you own a generator, pick the outdoor spot at least 20 feet from the house now, and buy the heavy-duty cords you will need.
- Charge power banks and keep them topped up.
- Sign up for local emergency alerts and your utility’s outage notifications.
- Write down a paper list of family and neighbor phone numbers.
- Plan where you would go if the house gets too cold.
The bottom line
NOAA’s El Nino outlook leans warm in the North and stormy in the South, and the grid’s own watchdog will publish its updated risk picture on Nov. 18. Neither forecast can say whether your street loses power this winter. A kit on the table, a working CO alarm and a generator parked well outside are what keep a winter power outage an inconvenience instead of an emergency.
